Thursday, April 30, 2009

轉載: China to let Taipei attend WHO assembly(中國讓台北參與WHO)

這是英國媒體的報導, 標題用字不同, 但意義相同-- 中國讓台北參與, 連台灣都不見了!只剩下台北. 這種身份下的參與, 值得沾沾自喜嗎?

文中指出, 中國阻撓(block)12年了, 現在竟然還要感謝? 好像一個打你巴掌打了12年的人,現在只是不打你了,你得對他說謝主隆恩一樣, 不被打不是應該的嗎? 何需感謝? 馬先生還好意思說這是人權。

人權是天賦的!  不是中國施捨的!謝中國是什麼意思?

現在感謝中國善意只是正面且公開的向中國稱臣而已啊!

最"貼切"的是, 直接稱呼馬先生而已,而不是馬總統....
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China to let Taipei attend WHO assembly
By Robin Kwong in Taipei and Kathrin Hille in Beijing
Published: April 30 2009 03:00 Last updated: April 30 2009 03:00

China has dropped its long-standing opposition to Taiwan participating in the World Health Organisation's annual assembly, paving the way for the island to attend a United Nations meeting next month for the first time since it was expelled in 1971.

Margaret Chan, the WHO's director-general, has invited Yeh Ching-chuan, Taiwan's health minister, to participate in the World Health Assembly meeting in Geneva as an observer from "Chinese Taipei", the name the island uses to participate in the Olympics and the World Trade Organisation.

The move, which comes as the world is struggling to contain Mexican swine flu, is the latest sign of improving relations across the Taiwan Strait and is a political victory for Ma Ying-jeou, the island's president, of the ruling Kuomintang party.

Beijing and Taipei have signed several economic co-operation deals since Mr Ma's election last year, but issues such as Taiwan's participation in international bodies had been deemed too politically sensitive.

Beijing claims sovereignty over Taiwan - to which the Kuomintang's Chinese nationalist forces fled in 1949 - and has threatened to invade the island if it declares formal independence.

Yesterday, Mr Ma welcomed the WHO's invitation, saying that goodwill from China was a reason for the breakthrough. "Participating in WHO activities is not simply a political issue. It is more importantly a human rights issue. And Taiwan's 23m people's right to medical care and health should not be ignored," he said.

China had blocked Taiwan's efforts to join the World Health Assembly for 12 years. The island's officials have long argued that its exclusion restricted its access to key medical information and hampered moves to tackle disease outbreaks. The issue became a flashpoint during the 2003 Sars epidemic.

In 2005, Beijing agreed to the limited participation of Taiwan's technical experts in certain WHO meetings. But until now it has shut Taiwan out of meetings attended by government representatives. The World Health Assembly brings together ministers and senior health officials from all 193 member states.

Mr Yeh said he thought Taiwan would now be invited every year. A Beijing official said the arrangement showed China's goodwill towards Taiwan's people.

Additional reporting by Frances Williams
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009


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延伸閱讀:
China Demonstrates 'Goodwill' to Taiwan
只摘錄部份如下:

The decision to let Taiwan attend the World Health Assembly meeting helps address what has been one of the more emotionally charged issues dividing Taiwan and China. Taiwanese have long been frustrated by their inability to participate in international groups -- especially the WHO, given its important role fighting outbreaks of disease such as the current swine-flu outbreak. During the 2003 SARS epidemic, which killed 37 people in Taiwan, restrictions on interaction with Taiwan meant that WHO officials didn't arrive on the island until more than a month after the first infections began appearing -- a delay that angered many in Taiwan.

Taiwan's participation in the WHO will still be limited: Its observer status means it won't have a vote on policy, and it appears that Taiwan's invitation may need to be renewed every year, leaving the possibility that Beijing could withhold consent in the future. WHO officials didn't respond to requests for comment.

But Taiwanese officials were pleased at the invitation. Mr. Ma, the president, said the invitation represents "goodwill" from China's leadership.

看清楚沒啊! 之前SARS 死了37人,激怒了很多台灣人. 而現在馬先生卻說這是中國展現善意, 真是夠了啊

轉載: Taiwan president: China approves island WHO role (馬總統: 中國批准台灣以觀察員身分參與WHO)

沒時間翻譯,先轉載全文如下.
標題是我翻的, 台灣總統現在是馬先生,所以直接翻為馬總統.至於island當然指的是台灣島,所以就直接翻為台灣了.這裡的角色是的是以觀察員的身分.所以囉...

標題的approves這個字是關鍵.馬先生以中國為馬首是瞻, 美聯社是這麼講的啊!!

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Taiwan president: China approves island WHO role
By PETER ENAV – 1 day ago

TAIPEI, Taiwan (AP) — Taiwan said Wednesday it had persuaded China to allow it to participate in a key U.N. body, offering a victory for President Ma Ying-jeou's campaign to win greater international recognition for the democratic island.

China, which for almost six decades has struggled against Taiwanese participation in international bodies, confirmed that Taiwan will attend next month's meeting of the World Health Assembly in Geneva as an observer.

The WHA is the decision-making authority for the World Health Organization.

Agreement on the issue is a major achievement for Ma, who took office 11 months ago amid promises to turn the corner on his predecessor's anti-China stand, and work for better relations with Beijing.

Taiwan and China split amid civil war in 1949. China continues to claim the island as part of its territory and normally objects to Taipei's participation in international organizations as a symbol of national sovereignty.

Wednesday's announcement comes amid rising worldwide concern over the spread of swine flu, which is believed to have claimed more than 150 lives and sickened thousands in Mexico and infected people in several other countries.

Speaking to staffers at the Presidential Office in Taipei, Ma said Beijing had lifted its longtime objections to Taipei's participation in the WHA, calling it a victory for his China engagement policy.

"The mainland authorities have made a friendly gesture," he said.
Ma spokesman Wang Yu-chi said the island would participate in the assembly under the name Chinese Taipei, the same title it uses in the Olympics.

In Beijing, the official Xinhua news agency said the agreement on the WHA issue reflected China's desire to promote better relations with Taipei.

"Such an arrangement shows our goodwill to achieve practical benefits for Taiwan people and indicates our sincerity to promote peaceful development of cross-Straits relations," it quoted Health Ministry spokesman Mao Qun'an as saying.

Relations between China and Taiwan have improved significantly since Ma's election last March. Predecessor Chen Shui-bian was reviled by Beijing, because of his support for formal Taiwanese independence.

Taiwan — including under Chen — pushed hard for WHA participation, because of the access to key medical information it provides. It used the SARS outbreak in 2002-2003 as an example, saying that Beijing's refusal to let it participate undermined its ability to deal effectively with the deadly epidemic.

(看到沒啊, 還記得之前的影片嗎? 直接說出: 誰理你啊! 中國眼裡根本沒有台灣人民啦, 現在有馬先生以主權交換,被美聯社看破手腳了啦! 否則何必"China approves"?)

Chiu Ya-wen, a researcher at Taiwan's National Health Research Institutes, said that Taiwan's WHA participation would provide the island practical benefits if and when the swine flu crisis affects it.

"Becoming an observer at the WHA will help us combat the swine flu better as we will be able to communicate our needs to the WHO directly, and WHO may be able to send experts to Taiwan if necessary," she said.
Copyright © 2009 The Associated Press. All rights reserved


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延伸閱讀:
台灣入衛 中國假好心/外交部證實:秘密備忘錄未廢

Sunday, April 26, 2009

下一個被合諧的是....

Youtube 在中國被全面封殺之後, Plurk 現在也在中國被"合諧"掉了, 下一個可能是Twitter?

ps/po這個是為了測試新加入的版面小工具, 不過並沒有出現啊? 真是失敗....再來研究看看


PPS/抄一段"奴才"送給喜歡當奴才的人

---------魯迅 燈下漫筆-----------

任憑你愛排場的學者們怎樣舖張,修史時候設些什么“漢族發祥時代”“漢族發達時代”“漢族中興時代”的好題目,好意誠然是可感的,但措辭太繞灣子了。

有更其直捷了當的說法在這里——   
一,想做奴隸而不得的時代;   
二,暫時做穩了奴隸的時代。   

這一种循環,也就是“先儒”之所謂“一治一亂”那些作亂人物,從后日的“臣民”看來,是給“主子”清道辟路的,所以說:“為圣天子驅除云爾。”

現在入了那一時代,我也不了然。但看國學家的崇奉國粹,文學家的贊歎固有文明,道學家的熱心复古,可見于現狀都已不滿了。然而我們究竟正向著那一條路走呢?百姓是一遇到莫名其妙的戰爭,稍富的遷進租界,婦孺則避入教堂里去了,因為那些地方都比較的“穩”,暫不至于想做奴隸而不得。總而言之,复古的,避難的,無智愚賢不肖,似乎都已神往于三百年前的太平盛世,就是“暫時做穩了奴隸的時代”了。

Monday, April 20, 2009

轉載: Jackie Chan's China comments prompt backlash (AP)

這是我記得的,成龍所講過的第二次公開笑話,或是說,他第二次公開向中國輸誠..

只要對照前兩天我post 的WSJ的那段摘錄:
human rights isn't an either-or trade between wealth and freedom. Economic prosperity rests on the protection of basic civil liberties such as the right to free speech, free association and equal protection under law.

與Huang Wei-che(黃偉哲)對成龍笑話的批評:
Huang Wei-che said Chan himself "has enjoyed freedom and democracy and has reaped the economic benefits of capitalism. But he has yet to grasp the true meaning of freedom and democracy."

就可知道誰頭腦有問題. 還記得他偷腥曝光後說什麼他犯了全天下男人都會犯的錯嗎? 拜託, 請不要拉全天下男人下水. 說自己管不住自己的下半身就好了. 現在也是,說成龍奴性重可能還太便宜他了, 他應該把妻兒接回需要被"控制"(control)的中國住啊, 妻兒住加拿大算什麼呢? 趕快把妻兒接去住在屬於她們被管制的地方啊! 還是他沒有辦法管住妻兒讓她們去住在他口中應該被管制的地方呢?

的確, 這對一個連自己半身都管不住的人來講真的太難了, 自己都管不了了還要他管誰? 是的, 他的確需要被控制,只是習慣性的又要拖一堆人如香港和台灣下水! 

還好我是台灣人,不是中國人,我不需要被"控制". 還好我本來對他的電影就沒什麼興趣, 從此拒看一點都不困難啊!

還有,那些要來跟我講什麼台灣人也是中國人的人,請省了, 驗了DNA之前確認自己完全沒有平埔族南島血統的話你個人可以開心宣示你是純種中國人, 但是請不用把你自己的想法強加到我頭上, 就像喜歡被控制的成龍請不用拖別人下水一樣.

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Jackie Chan's China comments prompt backlash (AP)

Source: AP Sun Apr 19, 2009, 4:20 am EDT

HONG KONG - Action star Jackie Chan 's comments wondering whether Chinese people "need to be controlled" have drawn sharp rebuke in his native Hong Kong and in Taiwan .
Chan told a business forum in the southern Chinese province of Hainan that a free society may not be beneficial for China 's authoritarian mainland.

"I'm not sure if it's good to have freedom or not," Chan said Saturday. "I'm gradually beginning to feel that we Chinese need to be controlled. If we're not being controlled, we'll just do what we want."

He went on to say that freedoms in Hong Kong and Taiwan made those societies "chaotic."
Chan's comments drew applause from a predominantly Chinese audience of business leaders, but did not sit well with lawmakers in Taiwan and Hong Kong.

"He's insulted the Chinese people. Chinese people aren't pets," Hong Kong pro-democracy legislator Leung Kwok-hung told The Associated Press. "Chinese society needs a democratic system to protect human rights and rule of law."

Another lawmaker, Albert Ho, called the comments "racist," adding: "People around the world are running their own countries. Why can't Chinese do the same?"

Former British colony Hong Kong enjoys Western-style civil liberties and some democratic elections under Chinese rule. Half of its 60-member legislature is elected, with the other half picked by special interest groups. But Hong Kong's leader is chosen by a panel stacked with Beijing loyalists.

In democratically self-ruled Taiwan, which split from mainland China during a civil war in 1949, legislator Huang Wei-che said Chan himself "has enjoyed freedom and democracy and has reaped the economic benefits of capitalism. But he has yet to grasp the true meaning of freedom and democracy."

Chan's comments were reported by news outlets in Hong Kong and Taiwan, but were ignored by the mainland Chinese press.

Although Chan was a fierce critic of the brutal crackdown on pro-democracy protesters in Beijing's Tiananmen Square in June 1989, which killed at least hundreds, he has not publicly criticized China's government in recent years and is immensely popular on the mainland.

He performed during the opening and closing ceremonies of the Beijing Olympics and took part in the Olympic torch relay .

Chan also is vice chairman of the China Film Association, a key industry group.
___
Associated Press writer Annie Huang in Taipei contributed to this report.

Thursday, April 16, 2009

克魯曼說簽ECFA是好事, 真的嗎?

兩三天前(台灣時間4/15時),我在咖啡館注意到這則新聞,一直按耐不寫, 因為找了一下發現聯合報沒報導,就算了(按: 我不看中時很久了,所以...).

中廣的報導是這樣的:
克魯曼:兩岸簽署ECFA是好事
時間: 2009/04/15 撰稿‧編輯:楊明娟 新聞引據:廣電媒體 (中國時報)
"簽署這樣的協議還是好事,也是一件應該做的好事。"

不過, 如果去看美國的原文, 卻發現是這樣的:

QUESTION: Thank you. Thank you, Professor. John Zang (ph) with CTI-TV of Taiwan. I have two questions for you. I have come from Washington for you for this occasion. Sir, you are going to Taiwan next month for a visit. People in Taiwan, a lot of them, will be looking to you for advice and probably for suggestions as to how best to come out of this economic abyss.

Second question: The government of President Ma Ying-jeou is thinking about signing or negotiating a baby FTA in the name of economic cooperative framework agreement. But the opposition party has concerns about possible jeopardy to Taiwan's sovereignty. What do you think about that? Thank you very much, sir, appreciate it.

MR. KRUGMAN: Okay. About the second, I don't really – unless I know – knew something more about it. I mean, there is – you know, free trade agreements, all – all such agreements do involve some sacrifice of national autonomy. They – we do this all the time. Now it's usually been a good thing. It sort of depends on what. I mean, there – so I can't really – can't really comment on that without knowing something more about it.

正確來講,克魯曼說的是簽署貿易協定通常是好事, 但也的確必須犧牲一些國家自主性. 但是, 對於ECFA, 他沒有太多了解因此無法評論.

結果, 簽署貿易協定通常是好事到了台灣媒體筆下就變成了--克魯曼說: 兩岸簽署ECFA是好事,而且還是一件應該做的事

像這種移花接木, 還有顛倒次序(如莎朗史東的報應說事件), 或是擅自竄改把有的說成無,把沒有的說成有(例如之前的選舉公投), 或是亂解讀英文, 在台灣特定媒體似乎都是常事. 甚至被抓包了還可以再編一個更大的或是更無俚頭的來掩藏錯誤(如毒奶事件對歐盟標準亂報), 就是死不認錯(說什麼"由於全球仍以英文為主要溝通語言,因此英國食品標準局網頁公布的訊息,常被視為具代表性。"----拜託英國的標準是英國,歐盟的標準是歐盟, 不要亂扯好咩).

希望不要繼白樂崎敎英文後, 又要被克魯曼經濟學家敎英文啊! 那可是更糗更丟臉ㄟ

Monday, April 13, 2009

關於問卷(2) (last updated: 10/05/2010)

昨天才寫關於問卷, 今天就看到這笑話一則, 簡直是太天兵了...

我之前的批評還真是太抬舉當局了.
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國防部問卷查貪「誰敢承認」
鴕鳥心態

國軍買官、賣官及貪瀆案持續延燒,國防部長陳肇敏親自編成「國防部廉政建設行動專案編組」,針對人事、財務、採購等單位及將級軍官進行「自清問卷調查」,全面展開國軍自清行動。但此舉卻遭部分官員譏諷「誰會這麼白目敢承認自己買官、賣官」,國防部的作法、心態簡直是「鴕鳥」。
應納入外界公正人士 國防部軍事發言人虞思祖證實,國防部已納編人事次長、主計局長、軍備局長、保防處長、監察處長,組成人事紀律、財務紀律、採購紀律、軍法事務、防貪情蒐、反貪策劃等六大組,由陳肇敏親任召集人,每周開會檢討,「只要有任何不法,立即移送偵辦。」對國防部展開自清,國民黨立委周守訓大表贊成,他說,本周國防委員會由他擔任輪值召委,因此今天會議他將變更議程,要求國防部、國安局親自向民眾說明後續防貪、防弊工作。民進黨立委蔡同榮也說,他贊成陳肇敏好好查一查是否真有買官行為,但該專案小組應納入外界公正人士,否則,他擔心扁政府時代「求官不成」的陳肇敏,領軍的「陳家班」調查小組會藉機清除異己或亂戴歪帽,這樣就有失公允。記者王烱華

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PS/關於資料要用primary versus secondary data的爭議, 又可以寫文章了. 不過就免啦!

extended reading:
台北市長選舉民調,中時偏頗的取樣四年如一日

Saturday, April 11, 2009

也說問卷調查

這不是政治文, 雖然都是從政治新聞說起.


話說我先後在不開放的部落格寫了兩篇[1]最近看到幾篇問卷調查的結果的感想. 簡單摘要如下:

(1)關於問卷的信度(reliability)與效度(validity): 主要是從這篇新聞(搶救馬聲望 研考會民調加問支持度 )開始.

March 20
more about survey validity
Let's first read the following news article.

搶救馬聲望 研考會民調加問支持度 〔記者黃維助、王貝林/台北報導〕馬英九總統就職後,施政滿意度低檔徘徊,研考會已規劃參考國外的元首「政治聲望」民調模式,擬將總統的施政表現滿意度與政治聲望(支持度)進行切割調查,藉此營造馬總統個人的高聲望支持度。 擬與施政滿意度切割 (後略)

I want to briefly point out a couple of things, not from a political viewpoint, but from a research viewpoint.

First of all, whether it is necessary, or valid, to separate "satistication" and "support" into two constructs( or some may even argue that it is just an index) are worth study. It usually takes a lot of effort to verify the validity of the scale. Adding one or dropping one item from the survey is not as cheap as it goes.

Second, the time interval between survey is another thing worth mention. I have no idea about how the survey is administrated. However, whether some of the samples are repeated may or may not (it needs further verification) impact the result.

Third, when there is a big gap between two items that are supposed to correlate in a certain way (in this example, 表現滿意度僅四成三,支持度卻高達六成四的落差成績) , it should lead us to be caution about the survey results. In other words, the reliability of the scale is highly questionable.

Last but not least, it is a big step (and in right direction in my viewpoint) that the newly developed item (i.e. support) is added to facilitate cross samples (cross countries) analysis.



(2) 如何算是一個合理的解釋? 這是從同一個調查兩篇不同報導的對照而來.

其中一段提到:

"小朋友眼中父母親不幸福的原因,「不景氣失業、缺錢」,「常吵架、爸爸喝酒」是孩子最憂心的。有22%表示同住家人生活有困難,也有21%的小朋友表示,學校繳費有困難。
蔡文哲表示,全球性金融風暴的整體壓力,似乎還沒有很明顯壓迫到孩子,可能有些父母工作時間減少、放無薪假,陪伴孩子的時間增加,反而使得今年整體幸福感較去年提升。但已經有孩子開始反應「怕家裡沒錢」,尤其在東部、南部的孩子心中,沈重的經濟壓力也替孩子帶來煩惱,預估明年這種現象會更明顯。"


實證研究者最擔心的就是當資料分析結果1)不顯著,2)與原先預測相反, 那如何提出合理的解釋來自圓其說.

是的,關鍵就在於合理兩字. 上面那段解釋合理嗎? 我不認為.

In my opinion, it is not because

1) lacks internal consistency: It first argues that the financial crisis appears not hit the children yet (全球性金融風暴的整體壓力,似乎還沒有很明顯壓迫到孩子), but later it argues the opposite (但已經有孩子開始反應「怕家裡沒錢」), so which one should we believe? Another contradictory statement/example is also available--on the one hand, it said "就區域而言,小朋友感受到幸福的比例,南部地區小朋友占85.6%最高;最低為東部地區占78.6%;而北部地區占83.5%," but on the other hand, it showed "尤其在東部、南部的孩子心中,沈重的經濟壓力也替孩子帶來煩惱". Again, which one should we believe?

2) lacks convincing evidence to prove why the explanation (i.e. 可能有些父母工作時間減少、放無薪假,陪伴孩子的時間增加,反而使得今年整體幸福感較去年提升) is plausible. To make a valid argument, one would have to show that the assumption is warranted, and the reasoning is correct. The assumption here is 有些父母工作時間減少、放無薪假,陪伴孩子的時間增加.

Is there any evidence to support this assumption? To support this assumption, one would have to show that when parents do not work and/or on leave, they spend all their extra time to company the children. If the extra time is spent on, say finding a job or being depressed or having fight or drinking problem (常吵架、爸爸喝酒」), then the assumption is not warranted. An invalid asssumption would not lead to a plausible argument.

3) mistaken "correlation" as "causality": Even above is a valid argument, it only proves that "父母工作時間減少、放無薪假," appears to be positively related to "整體幸福感較去年提升". It did not prove that it is "父母工作時間減少、放無薪假" which leads to "整體幸福感較去年提升".

[1]其實有三篇,另一篇是更早的從台灣民眾統獨立場看統計: some thoughts about survey, 講到的是meta-analysis, temporal effect 還有measurement and analysis
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延伸閱讀:
統計是沒有立場的嗎?
也談民意調整的方法